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CUP PREVIEW — TEXAS
10 races into the year, and if you would have told me Tyler Reddick would have a 100-point lead, won 5 races including the first three, and Larson, Blaney, Hamlin, and Byron would have 2 wins total amongst them, I would have asked you if you were feeling OK. However, this is the reality 10 races in. It is a very strange year so far indeed. Chevy has obviously phoned it in with this year’s “updated aero package” on a car that does not exist. Go ask Harvick why Keelan signed with Toyota… Crazy Chevy let that happen right under their noses. But I digress, to Texas we go.
The human missile that was Carson Hocevar finally landed on target and in victory lane. It is a well-deserved victory and none too soon for the young bull. This win finally being able to silence his many critics of his driving style and all-or-nothing mentality. He established himself at one of the toughest tracks to simply even see the checkered flag. While I don’t foresee him going back-to-back, a top 10 is not out of the question.
My pick to win is Denny Hamlin. He really should have won both the ’24 and ’25 races with him coming up short at the end both times. Also, he will be back in the clean Progressive blue paint scheme, which has been his winningest scheme since they came on board as a primary partner after FedEx leaving. Even stating on Actions Detrimental, “Ooooooh, first Progressive race?! Back in the blue?! Ooooooh, ooooh, I like where we are going here!!!” Hinting at his 3 wins last year in the blue.
O’REILLY / NOAPS PREVIEW — TEXAS
As far as NOAPS, this is quickly becoming mine and most race fans across the nation’s favorite series (damn you for selling out to ESPN but that’s another story). The cars in this series can actually pull out of line and pass and also they have much less drag. It is painfully evident, not to mention the commentary team on the CW do a great job and the fans have responded with almost 1.5 million views for last week’s AG-Pro 300 at Talladega.
Corey Day and the HendrickCars.com team will no doubt be looking to double up, and with their equipment and Corey’s talent, and a shot of luck, they very well could. However, Justin Allgaier and his JRM team will be looking to add their 4th win of the season, and they seem primed to do just that.
A sleeper pick to win is Austin Dillon, who will be running the #3 Boot Barn RCR Chevrolet. Dillon has shown flashes on intermediate tracks this year and if he gets track position late, he is very much capable of stealing one when it turns into a restart fight.
TRUCK SERIES PREVIEW — TEXAS
Texas in the Truck Series is usually decided by three things. Track position, pit road execution, and who can actually handle the final restart without overdriving the corner entry. Long runs matter, but they do not matter as much as surviving the last 10 laps.
This is also one of those races where experience and raw aggression both matter at the same time. You can have the best truck all night and still get moved out of the way in the final corner.
My pick to win is Kyle Busch. He is still the standard at this level when he shows up. Texas is exactly the kind of place where he can manage the race early, stay out of trouble, and then take it over when it becomes a restart and track position sprint at the end. If he is in the mix late, he is the cleanest closer in the field.
The biggest challenger is Carson Hocevar. He races like he is already in a must-win situation every time, and that style actually works in Trucks at Texas if he keeps the truck clean enough to be there at the end. He is more than capable of forcing the issue late and stealing one on a restart.
Ty Majeski is another real threat, bringing consistency and long-run control that keeps him in contention even when things get messy. If it turns into a tire or fuel style race late, he is absolutely still live.
Sleeper chaos factor is Layne Riggs. If the race turns into a late restart cluster, he is exactly the type who can turn a top five into a win in one corner.